Thursday Thrillers

Have you exhaled yet? College basketball at its highest level was on display last night with three down-to-the-wire thrillers out of the four total games. SI's Grant Wahl put it best in an article from today, saying, "Are you starting to see why a rash of opening-week upsets aren't always the greatest thing?" Amen. Now we get the best teams playing against each other, and yesterday, that produced three classic games. Some of my quick thoughts from last night:

- The Ohio State-Tennessee game encapsulates the Volunteers' season. They're capable of looking like world beaters when they're on their game, forcing their frenetic pace on the opponent and draining 3s. That's what happened in the first half when they raced out to a 20 point lead. But that hyper-aggressive style can also let teams back, and sure enough, the Buckeyes worked their magic for the second consecutive game, making it a workable margin very early in the second half.

- I have to come clean and admit it. I never thought Memphis would get so far, and I was very wrong. They've certainly got plenty of talent, and are determined to prove the many doubters out there. I think the win against Texas A&M shut up most of those doubters, myself included. And to do it in what essentially amounted to a road game in front of a throng of Aggie supporters in San Antonio made it all the more impressive. With Ohio State looking vulnerable, the Tigers have a great shot to make the Final Four.

- On the other hand, my opinion on Pittsburgh was confirmed with yet another Sweet 16 exit for Jamie Dixon's crew. For some reason, year in and year out, they have not had the ability to win the really big game. They're consistently at a level where you consider them one of the very good teams in college basketball, but they're struggling to reach the elite status.

- Kansas showed they were capable of winning a close game against a defensively smothering team in Southern Illinois, a huge statement for a team that likes to get up and down the floor and score a lot of points. This was about as great a preparation as they could have had in advance of playing another defensive-minded team in UCLA in the Regional Final.

Four more games tonight!

Georgetown vs. Vanderbilt
North Carolina vs. USC
Oregon vs. UNLV
Florida vs. Butler

final four
ucla
kansas
ohio state
memphis
sweet 16

My NCAA Tournament Picks

As promised, below I give you my bracket breakdown by region. Scroll to the end of the post to see my picks for the regional finals and beyond.

EAST: Georgetown over North Carolina

This has the trappings of an awful matchup for the Tar Heels. They love to get out and run, while the Hoyas are the anti-Heels, cutting down on possessions and playing a patient half-court game. I'm not sold on UNC as a championship contender and think the Hoyas are clicking on all cylinders. The team that dictates the pace of the game will win - I think that will be Georgetown.

SOUTH: Texas A&M over Ohio State

I know that the Buckeyes have more talent and some NBA team's future franchise player in Greg Oden, but I just believe in point guard Acie Law IV and Coach Billy Gillespie. They've done the unthinkable by making Aggies basketball relevant. Now they'll cement their status as part of the college basketball elite by advancing to the Final Four.

WEST: UCLA over Kansas

Despite their first round loss in the Pac-10 tournament, I still believe that the Bruins have been the country's most consistent, well-rounded team this year. And they have the edge on experience as well. No key Jayhawk has won an NCAA Tournament game, while UCLA will be burning to make the Final Four for the second consecutive year.

MIDWEST: Florida over Oregon

As smoking hot as Oregon looked in the Pac 10 tournament, and as much as part of me wants to make the bold move and pick against the Gators, I just can't make myself do it. The Gators will overwhelm the Ducks with their talent, depth, experience and drive to advance to the Final Four.

NATIONAL SEMIFINALS:

UCLA over Florida

If this matchup happens, I could see it being an epic battle. I don't see any way this year's game would be anything but close after the Gators trounced the Bruins in the title game last year. However, I think Florida's bid to repeat ends here while UCLA makes another championship game appearance under coach Ben Howland.

Georgetown over Texas A&M

This would be a matchup of two disciplined, well-coached teams and would probably be close all the way. But I'd go with the Hoyas since both Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert have the potential to dominate any given game. The Aggies don't have a dynamic duo as imposing as those Green-Hibbert.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:

Georgetown over UCLA

My head tells me that this game could go either way. Both teams can play smothering defense, both have go-to conference players of the year in Aaron Afflalo for UCLA and Jeff Green for Georgetown. So in a toss-up, I'll take that as reason enough to go with the Hoyas to win it all. Hey, you didn't think I was going to choose against my alma mater in my own blog, did you?

final four
ncaa tournament
georgetown
ucla
jeff green
aaron afflalo
greg oden
acie law

The NCAA Race is Wide Open

This is what's great about college basketball that you don't get in any other sport: the closer you get to the postseason, the more teams that have hope (unfounded hope in some cases, I grant you) for a berth in the NCAAs seems to increase exponentially. And this year takes that uncertainty that makes the sport so exciting this time of year to a level we haven't seen in quite a while. Not only do you have a crowd of teams trying to squeeze in to the field of 65, but this year, you have a host of teams that that have a real chance at making a championship run. The across the board parity along the college basketball landscape that has prevailed this year, in addition to the lack of a dominant team gives a bigger group of teams legitimate hope for reaching the Final Four.

Today was a perfect example of why there is no clear favorite. The #1 and #2 teams in the polls, Wisconsin and Ohio State played an underwhelming game for a matchup of such prominence, with neither team able to crack 50 points. The thing is though, this is the first big win of the year for the Buckeyes, who will likely be #1 in both polls as of tomorrow. They've been thumped by two other top 5 teams this year, Florida and North Carolina, both of whom will continue to be ranked behind Ohio State in the new polls.

Florida, the national champs, have struggled as of late, and while they will probably respond to Coach Billy Donovan lighting into them following their embarrassing loss to SEC bottom feeder LSU on Saturday, I don't believe the Gators will repeat. They've got the talent and the experience, but there's a reason why schools rarely repeat in college hoops - it's too hard to get through the pressure cooker of a 6 game single-elimination tournament two years in a row. Look at the last team that had a profile that was very much like the Gator team now - the 1997-98 Arizona Wildcats, led by Mike Bibby and Miles Simon. That was a team that won the championship a year ahead of schedule the season before, and was considered the odds-on-favorite entering the tournament the following year. But they ended up getting whacked by a streaking Utah team in the regional final that came in prepared and hungry. I think it's very possible that we could have a similar situation with Florida in this tournament.

In my opinion, the most solid team in the country, the one that should be considered the favorite among a muddled field, is UCLA. They were #1 in the polls for a number of weeks earlier in the season, and have no alarming losses. They lost by 2 to a very dangerous Oregon team, by 7 to a good Stanford team, and by 5 at West Virginia in a game they did well to get back into following a horrendous start. They have two of the best players in the country in Aaron Afflalo and point guard Darren Collison, and you know that with Ben Howland as their coach, they're going to play good defense. The cherry on top is their hunger to finish the job they got so close to last season when they got ambushed in the national championship game to the Gators.

Some of the other teams may be flashier and have bigger name stars, but the Bruins deserve the mantle of favorites in a crowd of flawed teams.


aaron afflalo
ucla bruins
ben howland
billy donovan
final four