Cinderella's Pumpkin Has Arrived

Well, well. How quickly Cinderella retreated back to her attic room. The story of the tournament so far is the lack of any low-seeded teams to get excited about going into the second week. This year's George Mason is - UNLV? That in itself is a ludicrous statement to make. It's a school that along with sketchy dealings, is synonymous with domination, as the early '90s teams were some of the greatest in the sport's history. And considering the slim to nonexistent gap separating the tournament's #4-#10 seeds, it's really not all that surprising to see the Rebels there. They're more of a curiosity at this point because - let's face it - they're from Vegas and no one east of the Rockies has seen them play.

While the Tournament has been pretty ho-hum other than Saturday's batch of games, college basketball fans were still setting themselves up for disappointment this year. Excitement was at an all-time high last year when George Mason made the Final Four. And it was warranted. It was an unbelievable feat that has never happened in this modern era of college basketball. (By modern, I'm talking post shot clock and 3-point line implementation and major network exposure. So that's why I don't count Larry Bird's 1979 Indiana State team.) It was a high, and like a drug, you wanted more of it. But this time, a team making it to the Final Four wasn't enough - they had to get even further. Clearly that wasn't realistic, and as a result the tournament seems pretty boring to the fan that no longer has a team to root for.

But when you think about it, what was the real effect of George Mason's run? It gave the mid-majors the responsibility of raised expectations. Now, instead of a small school needing to catch lightning in a bottle and a couple of lucky breaks to make a real run, people expect them to advance because of their merits. That's why nobody is talking about Southern Illinois and Butler with any real excitement. They were expected to get this far because they are good teams that really can be counted among the best 15 or 20 in the nation. When they won, predictability won out, and that doesn't make for a compelling storyline.

I'm not saying that the mid-majors won't always have the some of that underdog in them - clearly they will, as there are only so many resources to go around. Not every school can realistically dream about a national championship. But as the gap between them and the power conferences closes, the aura of Cinderella that reached an all-time high last season will continue to wane.

The interesting point this brings up is - is this good for college basketball or not? I argue that it is, as more competition creates for a higher level of play, and more exposure for schools that would traditionally get none nationally. But if the rise of the small school continues, the number of teams that will fit our traditional profile of the Cinderella team in the NCAA Tournament will decline, and that could create for diminished excitement in a tournament whose appeal is based around excitement.

southern illinois
butler
unlv
george mason

My NCAA Tournament Picks

As promised, below I give you my bracket breakdown by region. Scroll to the end of the post to see my picks for the regional finals and beyond.

EAST: Georgetown over North Carolina

This has the trappings of an awful matchup for the Tar Heels. They love to get out and run, while the Hoyas are the anti-Heels, cutting down on possessions and playing a patient half-court game. I'm not sold on UNC as a championship contender and think the Hoyas are clicking on all cylinders. The team that dictates the pace of the game will win - I think that will be Georgetown.

SOUTH: Texas A&M over Ohio State

I know that the Buckeyes have more talent and some NBA team's future franchise player in Greg Oden, but I just believe in point guard Acie Law IV and Coach Billy Gillespie. They've done the unthinkable by making Aggies basketball relevant. Now they'll cement their status as part of the college basketball elite by advancing to the Final Four.

WEST: UCLA over Kansas

Despite their first round loss in the Pac-10 tournament, I still believe that the Bruins have been the country's most consistent, well-rounded team this year. And they have the edge on experience as well. No key Jayhawk has won an NCAA Tournament game, while UCLA will be burning to make the Final Four for the second consecutive year.

MIDWEST: Florida over Oregon

As smoking hot as Oregon looked in the Pac 10 tournament, and as much as part of me wants to make the bold move and pick against the Gators, I just can't make myself do it. The Gators will overwhelm the Ducks with their talent, depth, experience and drive to advance to the Final Four.

NATIONAL SEMIFINALS:

UCLA over Florida

If this matchup happens, I could see it being an epic battle. I don't see any way this year's game would be anything but close after the Gators trounced the Bruins in the title game last year. However, I think Florida's bid to repeat ends here while UCLA makes another championship game appearance under coach Ben Howland.

Georgetown over Texas A&M

This would be a matchup of two disciplined, well-coached teams and would probably be close all the way. But I'd go with the Hoyas since both Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert have the potential to dominate any given game. The Aggies don't have a dynamic duo as imposing as those Green-Hibbert.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:

Georgetown over UCLA

My head tells me that this game could go either way. Both teams can play smothering defense, both have go-to conference players of the year in Aaron Afflalo for UCLA and Jeff Green for Georgetown. So in a toss-up, I'll take that as reason enough to go with the Hoyas to win it all. Hey, you didn't think I was going to choose against my alma mater in my own blog, did you?

final four
ncaa tournament
georgetown
ucla
jeff green
aaron afflalo
greg oden
acie law

Where's Gaudet when you need him?

After ten years of winning the regular season or the tournament, the Duke Blue Devils have finally finished a season without an ACC championship. This is also the first time sine 1997 that Duke has not won a single game in the ACC Tournament.

Finishing the season at 8-8 in the conference, losing in the first round of the ACC tournament, and having no real inside or outside threat, it is hard to believe that this team is still ranked 21 in the country according to both major polls.

They've lost 7 of their last 11, and somehow this team is a lock for an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. With numbers like that, this team looks destined for the NIT, but with a name like that, they're one of the top teams in the country.

Besides winning the National Championship (highly unlikely) or winning the NIT Championship (even more unlikely), there's only one thing that can salvage this year's season: Steve Wojciechowski manning up and taking the losses on his personal record like Pete Gaudet did in '95. Coach K doesn't need this season on his record, and I'm sure he doesn't want it, no matter what he says ten years from now. Besides, unlike Gaudet, it'll be easy to put the losses on Wojo since he is the only man with a harder last name to spell than Coach K himself.

And speaking of manning up, I think Mike Krzyzewski should do his duty to NBA's to-be MVP, Gilbert Arenas. No, I don't mean put him on the USA team, that would be too decent for the Weasel Coach K. (If you're not going to put Allen Iverson on the team, the only All-Star who was willing, proud, and honored to play in the last Olympics and who expressed clear interest of returning, then you clearly have no soul.) No, no. I mean scheduling that game between the 2007 Blue Devils and the one-man team of Agent Zero. Hey, I bet he'd win that game with one hand.

Who's Gonna Be the LaDainian Tomlinson of 2007?

You've heard it being asked all year. Who will be the George Mason of 2007? After yesterday's loss to Virginia Commonwealth in the CAA Championship game all but killing their NCAA tournament hopes, the notion that it could be the Patriots yet again has been laid to rest.

But what exactly does it mean to be the George Mason of 2007?

It's not a question that's asked too often in the media, but I think a good "What the hell are you talking about?" is in order here. The next time someone asks you, "Who will be this year's George Mason?" do me a favor, and respond with, "What the hell are you talking about?" Do they mean, "Which mid-major nobody is going to surprise the nation and make it to the final four?" Maybe. Or do they mean, "Which under-dog is going to go the furthest?" Could be. Or do they mean, "Which team is going to have a bizarre monster as their mascot when your usual big headed man in a hat would suffice?"


Let's just run through these options briefly.
1) "Which mid-major nobody is going to surprise the nation and make it to the final four?"
Now that's a silly question. My brother made a good analogy: In stud poker, the odds of getting a royal flush is 1 in 649,740. Let's say we're watching the World Series of Poker, (not an unlikely possibility seeing that ESPN2 has become All-Poker-All-the-Time) and for some reason Jim Larranaga has entered and is doing pretty well so far. Now imagine that to advance to the final round, he wins a huge pot with a royal flush. It would be absurd to say, "Who's gonna be next year's Jim Larranaga? Who's gonna get the royal flush this year?" You gotta be out of your mind to expect that to happen every year. It may not happen again in a 100 years.

So if after asking "What the hell are you talking about?" you get an answer that sounds anything like 1), tell the dude he's out of his gourd. And walk away.

2) "Which under-dog is going to go the furthest?"
That's a more acceptable question. And I don't know the answer. You'd probably have to wait until Selection Sunday, then fill out a fake bracket, then decide what you'd classify as an "under-dog", and then come up with an answer. Too long of a process for me.

So if after asking "What the hell are you talking about?" you get an answer that sounds anything like 2), tell the dude he's out of his gourd too. He's really not. But it's a lot easier than doing all of that stuff I just mentioned.

3) "Which team is going to have a bizarre monster as their mascot when your usual big headed man in a hat would suffice?"
That's an excellent question. Tell them it's unlikely that there'll be another one this year, but look out for DePaul. They probably don't have a shot of making it to the big dance unless they win the Big East Tournament, but if they do, he'll definitely give the Patriot a run for his money.


(P.S. I'm Johnny, and I'm helping Sami out with the blog this week since he's out of the country.)

The Post-Super Bowl Blues

The Super Bowl has come and gone. Peyton Manning got his championship, and the Colts got their victory celebration in Indy in front of thousands of adoring fans.

Now what? How do we go on without football??

The next couple of weeks are a bit of a wasteland for sports fans. In that space of time, we have not one, but two of the most irrelevant, uninteresting events in all of sports - the professional All-Star Game.

First, you have the NFL Pro Bowl, the worst All-Star Game of them all. In a sport in which players conceal major injuries for weeks so they won't have to lose playing time, players annually fall all over themselves to find any excuse to avoid going. Did you get a paper cut that required a bandage? Hey, call in sick - the conference's fifth alternate at your position is eager and waiting to take your spot in Honolulu.

Then you have the NBA All-Star Game, which might have a little bit of novelty appeal this year, with it being played in Vegas. The problem with the NBA All-Star Game, much like the MLB All-Star Game, is that the most anticipated event isn't the game itself. Like the Home Run Derby in baseball, the Dunk Competition in basketball is the main event. Actually for me, the actual game is third on the list of All-Star related events. First is the Dunk Competition, second is the unveiling of the game's starters and reserves, and then it's the game itself. It's almost anticlimactic, really.

With college basketball's conference tournaments leading into the NCAA Tournament still about a month away, there's about a month of drudgery ahead before we get an exciting event to throw ourselves into. Not that I can't appreciate the NBA and NCAA regular seasons, but after a month of glory that was the NFL playoffs, being plunged back into the routine is a little tough to get used to.