The Race for the Bottom

It's the last week of the NFL season and along with games with playoff implications, let's not forget the importance of this week to the lowly Raiders and Lions, who are jostling for the #1 pick in the draft. They're both tied at 2-13, and if they both lose, the Lions get the #1 pick.

But there's not nearly as much hype associated with losing the final game to secure the top pick as there was last year, when the "Bush Bowl" between the 49ers and Texans was actually an eagerly anticipated game for that very reason. And that's for good reason. Last year's draft was incredibly strong, as it was both top-heavy and had plenty of depth. You had your future stars selected in the top 15 - Reggie Bush, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler - but you also had a ton of great talents that have emerged picked after the first round: Devin Hester, Marcus McNeill, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marques Colston, Demeco Ryans, etc.

This year's draft doesn't appear to be as strong as last year's and even the presumed top pick (though it's way early in the game and this could change in a heartbeat), Brady Quinn of Notre Dame, appears to have more question marks surrounding him than the top picks from last year did.

Again, much too early to say anything with a hint of certainty, but if it ends up being Lions #1 and Raiders #2, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Lions pick Brady Quinn first and the Raiders go with Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson second. The Lions need a star QB, and the incumbent, Jon Kitna, has been through this situation before in Cincinnati with Carson Palmer. He'd be a pro at handling the transition. And Johnson, with his deep threat and acrobatic catch ability, might be too much for the Raiders and their eternal dreams of a vertical passing game to pass up. (Even though it might make more sense to draft a QB - perhaps JaMarcus Russell of LSU? - given the abysmal play they've gotten out of the position this year.)

In any case, don't expect the commissioner to need to watch those two games too closely to make sure the teams aren't tanking it.

Year of the Second-String QB

Job security of NFL quarterbacks has always been a fragile thing, but has the revolving door of starting QBs ever been this active in one season? Yesterday on Thanksgiving, we were treated to three games, and in each, the winning quarterbacks had started only 7, 5, and 3 games respectively.

Detroit Lions reject Joey Harrington came back to his former home and led the Dolphins to a convincing 27-10 victory over his old team. It was Harrington's fourth straight win as starter, something he never did as Lions QB, improving his record to 4-3 as starter after taking over for the ineffective Daunte Culpepper.

After his near-flawless 5 TD effort against the hapless Buccaneers, Cowboy QB Tony Romo is now officially the hottest quantity in the NFL, and has ascended to rock star status in Dallas, much to the dismay of Bill Parcells. He is now 4-1 as starter, and his insertion into the starting lineup has given the Cowboys a new identity, as an exciting offensive team that is a threat to score on any given play.

And finally, Trent Green, who was projected to be the Chiefs starter going into the season, got his his second win since coming back from a horrific concussion in the opening game against the Bengals. And while he looks to be Kansas City's starter the rest of the way, backup QB Damon Huard was integral in keeping the Chiefs season alive after an 0-2 start, by going an impressive 5-3 in his time at the helm.

This season, 11 teams have turned to quarterbacks who were not projected to be their starters to start a game for them. The erstwhile second-string QBs have gone 28-31 for a winning percentage of .474. That may not sound impressive, but the quarterbacks who were replaced have gone 20-37, a percentage of only .350. And not to rag on Andrew Walter too much, but 6 of the 31 losses by the "backups" were by the Raiders' Walter, who has been hamstrung by an outdated offensive system and a subpar offensive line.

Several of the QB moves have very possibly signaled the end of the road as a starter for the benched signal caller. Drew Bledsoe of the Cowboys, Mark Brunell of the Redskins, Kurt Warner of the Cardinals, and Kerry Collins of the Titans may now be relegated to sideline status for the rest of their careers. This means of course, that most of the QB changes have been successes - Romo, Vince Young of the Titans, and Arizona's Matt Leinart are now entrenched as starters, while Washington's Jason Campbell will likely get to that point soon.

Then there are the quarterbacks who have stepped in at least in part because of injury. Bruce Gradkowski of the Bucs has been OK as starter, but he has played well enough to at least merit a debate as to whether he should be the #1 QB again next year. Harrington and David Garrard of the Jags were inserted partly because of injuries to the opening-day QBs, but are likely to stick in the lineup for the long-term because they've just been plain better than Culpepper and Byron Leftwich respectively.

Now, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady shouldn't be looking over their shoulders, but this season has shown that the level of talent in the NFL, in this case at the quarterback position is so evenly matched, that no starter should take his job for granted, regardless of past accomplishment and/or contract status.