These Players Will be Feeling the Heat

Spring training is upon us, and while that might equal a 6 week vacation for a lot of players, there are a couple handfuls of players, coaches, and one very prominent executive who are going to be under the microscope like never before. Below are 5 of the 10 individuals who I feel are facing the most pressure as the 2007 season approaches and how I think they'll fare. I'll give you the top 5 players under pressure tomorrow.

10. Justin Morneau - 1B, Minnesota Twins
Morneau broke out in a huge way the final 4 months of last season, rolling all the way to the unlikeliest of MVPs. Unlike last season however, Morneau won't be given any leeway should he struggle to start out the season. He's now an established power hitter, and his big challenge is to see how he handles being pitched around in a lineup without much thump.

9. Brad Lidge - Closer, Houston Astros
Lidge had a roller-coaster 2006, losing his closer job briefly, then regaining and holding it to the end of the season. If Lidge can regain the form he had through 2005 before NLCS Game 6 and the Albert Pujols home run, the Astros could be the team to beat in an NL Central that appears to be up for grabs. My guess: he'll be solid if not spectacular, keeping his job safe.

8. Fredi Gonzalez - Manager, Florida Marlins
Joe Girardi came out of his firing by the Marlins smelling like roses, and it didn't help Gonzalez in the court of public opinion since he was essentially hired before Girardi could clean out his office. What will really hurt Gonzalez though, are the expectations that accompany his team a year after overachieving under Girardi. Realistically, Florida is still probably a year away from being a serious playoff contender, and if they struggle, Gonzalez may get some heat unfairly.

7. Joel Zumaya - Reliever, Detroit Tigers
Zumaya had a spectacular season in 2006, bursting onto the scene as one of the premier set-up men in baseball. Then like one of his 101 mile per hour fastballs, he flamed out just as spectacularly in the World Series, giving up key hits and making crucial fielding errors. Does the negative momentum of the World Series stay with him, or will he ascend to the closer role? My guess is that he takes the job from incumbent Todd Jones at some point this year - he's got too much talent for the Tigers not to make the switch eventually.

6. Lou Piniella - Manager, Chicago Cubs
Cubs fans have become increasingly intolerant of mediocrity in recent years, and make no mistake, Lou ain't having any of that either. Maybe more than anyone else on this list, I expect Piniella to succeed because of his incredible track record as manager. However, he is coming off a putrid stint as Devil Rays manager, and faces sky-high expectations in Chicago after the off-season spending spree they went on. The Cubs should be right in the thick of things in the Central race, and Piniella will likely prove to be the Cubs' smartest investment of the offseason when all is said and done.

justin morneau
brad lidge
fredi gonzalez
joel zumaya
lou piniella

MVPs Anonymous

In a bit of an upset, Justin Morneau, first baseman for the Twins, won the AL MVP today in a close vote over Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter. Morneau, who hit .321 with 34 HR and 130 RBI is probably the most improbable, and for the moment, the most anonymous league MVP of this generation. A native of British Columbia, Canada, Morneau won the award in only his second full season as the Twins starting first baseman. What makes it all the more impressive is that his huge year came after a season in 2005 in which he fell well short of lofty expectations that were heaped upon him.

For Morneau to break through and win the award meant he had to overcome a lack of name recognition that comes his lack of experience and his status as member of a smaller market team in the Twins. And the players he finished above in the voting are about as big-name as they come: Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, and Frank Thomas. Usually in baseball, big names like that end up walking away with the award. The only leauge MVPs in the last 15 years that are comparable in terms of their surprise emergence are Ken Caminiti who won for the Padres in 1996, and Terry Pendleton for the Braves in 1991. But even those two players were more firmly established when they won the honors than Morneau is now.

Maybe the most comparable example to Morneau is Miguel Tejada, who won the AL MVP for Oakland in 2002. His numbers that year are eerily similar to those of Morneau this year - he also had 34 HR with 131 RBI. Both players were the top offensive threats on teams that were not star-studded but were full of good players. And the key thing is that both players played their best during remarkable winning stretches by their teams. You may remember that the A's won 20 games in a row in that 2002 season, and this year's Twins overcame a mediocore April and May to become the hottest team in baseball over the final four months of the season. Both teams won their division in tight races, and as a side note, both teams were upset in the first round of the playoffs - the A's in 2002 by Minnesota, and Minnesota by the A's in 2006 ironically enough.

If anything the MVP results in both leagues this year show that you need a torrid stretch in the back half of the season in addition to solid production throughout the year in order to win the award. This year's two second-place winners, Jeter in the AL and Albert Pujols in the NL, had great overall seasons, but did not have the signature late-season stretch that gave the MVPs to Morneau and Ryan Howard of the Phillies in the NL.