The Race for the Bottom

It's the last week of the NFL season and along with games with playoff implications, let's not forget the importance of this week to the lowly Raiders and Lions, who are jostling for the #1 pick in the draft. They're both tied at 2-13, and if they both lose, the Lions get the #1 pick.

But there's not nearly as much hype associated with losing the final game to secure the top pick as there was last year, when the "Bush Bowl" between the 49ers and Texans was actually an eagerly anticipated game for that very reason. And that's for good reason. Last year's draft was incredibly strong, as it was both top-heavy and had plenty of depth. You had your future stars selected in the top 15 - Reggie Bush, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler - but you also had a ton of great talents that have emerged picked after the first round: Devin Hester, Marcus McNeill, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marques Colston, Demeco Ryans, etc.

This year's draft doesn't appear to be as strong as last year's and even the presumed top pick (though it's way early in the game and this could change in a heartbeat), Brady Quinn of Notre Dame, appears to have more question marks surrounding him than the top picks from last year did.

Again, much too early to say anything with a hint of certainty, but if it ends up being Lions #1 and Raiders #2, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Lions pick Brady Quinn first and the Raiders go with Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson second. The Lions need a star QB, and the incumbent, Jon Kitna, has been through this situation before in Cincinnati with Carson Palmer. He'd be a pro at handling the transition. And Johnson, with his deep threat and acrobatic catch ability, might be too much for the Raiders and their eternal dreams of a vertical passing game to pass up. (Even though it might make more sense to draft a QB - perhaps JaMarcus Russell of LSU? - given the abysmal play they've gotten out of the position this year.)

In any case, don't expect the commissioner to need to watch those two games too closely to make sure the teams aren't tanking it.

NFL Week 16 Observations

Another week, and the playoff picture in the NFL is just as muddled as ever. Here are some observations with the two Christmas day games still left in Week 16.

- It is conceivable, (and maybe more than just conceivable considering the state of the conference these days) that the NFC could have 3 playoff participants at .500 or worse.

• Seattle (8-7), which wouldn't have a shot if it played in any other division, will be the favorites against Tampa Bay next week, but they have virtually nothing to play for, locked into the #4 playoff seed- add to that the fact that the Bucs have been playing well of late, and you may be looking at an 8-8 division winner.


• In the mess that is the race for the final playoff spot, whichever team backs into the #6 seed can have no better than an 8-8 record.


• Philadelphia, 8-6 at the moment, will likely throw a wrench in this comedy of errors with its quality play of late, but in this season, anything is possible.

- Count me among the growing legions of football fans who are rooting for the Titans to make it into the AFC playoffs. If Tennessee does make it, I will clear my calendar to watch Vince Young do his thing. If it does happen, they'd likely play the Colts, a team they've already beaten this season, way back when it was improbable to even mention playoffs in the same sentence as Titans.

- Speaking of the Titans, their late season run reminds me a little bit of the Jaguars' streak in 1997, their second season of existence. The Jags were 4-7 before winning their last 5 to close the season, sneak into the playoffs, and somehow, advanced all the way to the AFC Championship Game. This Titans team was at 2-7, and now has won 6 in a row. The Titans need help to get in, even if they win, but so did the Jags back in '96, when they needed a rare missed field goal from Morten Andersen to win their final game. It could happen....

- I have a feeling that the Colts, now in the #3 slot in the AFC, will win their first playoff game at home, silencing doubters....for one week before they go out and lose to either the Ravens or Chargers on the road. It's hard for me to even say that this adversity will galvanize the team toward a deep playoff run, because united or not, the defense still can't stop the run. It's just a weakness they can't get over this late in the game.

- Baltimore may be on its way to one of the quietest 13-3 campaigns in NFL history. If they win next week and the Chargers lose, they believe it or not, will gain home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. I wasn't a believer earlier in the season, but they just keep winning, with a formula made for a deep playoff run - great defense and a steady offense. And this isn't the weak sister Trent Dilfer offense of the 2000 Super Bowl run. With Steve McNair at QB, weapons like Todd Heap and Mark Clayton to catch the ball, and - perhaps most importantly - head coach Brian Billick calling the plays, the Ravens can air it out too. I wouldn't be surprised if this team makes it all the way to Miami.

Year of the Second-String QB

Job security of NFL quarterbacks has always been a fragile thing, but has the revolving door of starting QBs ever been this active in one season? Yesterday on Thanksgiving, we were treated to three games, and in each, the winning quarterbacks had started only 7, 5, and 3 games respectively.

Detroit Lions reject Joey Harrington came back to his former home and led the Dolphins to a convincing 27-10 victory over his old team. It was Harrington's fourth straight win as starter, something he never did as Lions QB, improving his record to 4-3 as starter after taking over for the ineffective Daunte Culpepper.

After his near-flawless 5 TD effort against the hapless Buccaneers, Cowboy QB Tony Romo is now officially the hottest quantity in the NFL, and has ascended to rock star status in Dallas, much to the dismay of Bill Parcells. He is now 4-1 as starter, and his insertion into the starting lineup has given the Cowboys a new identity, as an exciting offensive team that is a threat to score on any given play.

And finally, Trent Green, who was projected to be the Chiefs starter going into the season, got his his second win since coming back from a horrific concussion in the opening game against the Bengals. And while he looks to be Kansas City's starter the rest of the way, backup QB Damon Huard was integral in keeping the Chiefs season alive after an 0-2 start, by going an impressive 5-3 in his time at the helm.

This season, 11 teams have turned to quarterbacks who were not projected to be their starters to start a game for them. The erstwhile second-string QBs have gone 28-31 for a winning percentage of .474. That may not sound impressive, but the quarterbacks who were replaced have gone 20-37, a percentage of only .350. And not to rag on Andrew Walter too much, but 6 of the 31 losses by the "backups" were by the Raiders' Walter, who has been hamstrung by an outdated offensive system and a subpar offensive line.

Several of the QB moves have very possibly signaled the end of the road as a starter for the benched signal caller. Drew Bledsoe of the Cowboys, Mark Brunell of the Redskins, Kurt Warner of the Cardinals, and Kerry Collins of the Titans may now be relegated to sideline status for the rest of their careers. This means of course, that most of the QB changes have been successes - Romo, Vince Young of the Titans, and Arizona's Matt Leinart are now entrenched as starters, while Washington's Jason Campbell will likely get to that point soon.

Then there are the quarterbacks who have stepped in at least in part because of injury. Bruce Gradkowski of the Bucs has been OK as starter, but he has played well enough to at least merit a debate as to whether he should be the #1 QB again next year. Harrington and David Garrard of the Jags were inserted partly because of injuries to the opening-day QBs, but are likely to stick in the lineup for the long-term because they've just been plain better than Culpepper and Byron Leftwich respectively.

Now, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady shouldn't be looking over their shoulders, but this season has shown that the level of talent in the NFL, in this case at the quarterback position is so evenly matched, that no starter should take his job for granted, regardless of past accomplishment and/or contract status.