My Pick for Saints-Bears

Earlier in the week, I went out on a limb and picked the Colts to break their playoff hex against the Patriots and advance to the Super Bowl. And now, after a lot of time spent trying to rationalize a winner, I'll give you my NFC Championship pick.

As is the case with almost all of the games in this year's playoffs (New York-New England is the only game that stands out to me as having had a clear favorite in the Pats), these two teams are pretty evenly matched and I do see a close game shaping up.

Here are some of the key storylines going into the game, and how I see them playing out in the result:

The homefield advantage factor: Yes, the Saints play in a temperature-controlled dome, but that doesn't mean they don't know how to play in the natural elements. New Orleans actually had a better record on the road than at home this season, going 6-2, including wins at cold-weather locations in Green Bay and Cleveland in addition to a 7 point loss at Pittsburgh. And QB Drew Brees is no stranger to winter in the Midwest, having played four years in the Big Ten at Purdue. If the Saints lose, it won't be because of the weather - they're too focused and driven of a team to let that defeat them.

Good Rex vs. Bad Rex: The eternal guessing game goes on for at least another week: which Rex Grossman will show up? Early season MVP candidate Rex, or 1.3 QB rating (referring to his performance in a game against Minnesota this season), Rex? If history is any indication, I would anticipate seeing Bad Rex in this game. He seems to have his best performances when everyone is doubting him. He shuts everyone up for one week, then goes out and proves why the doubters were out in the first place. The ironic part is, for the Bears to win, they're going to need Grossman to challenge the Saints' secondary, one of New Orleans' weaknesses.

Saints Offense vs. Bears Defense: I give the edge to the Saints' offense here. Bears' opponents have scored at least 24 points in 4 of their last 5 games, including Seattle last week. An important addendum to that is the fact that Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck was playing with an injured hand, meaning the Seahawks' offense wasn't really at full strength. And rare is the occasion when New Orleans is shut down on the offensive side - they have put up at least 20 in 13 of their 17 games this year. Their offense is humming along, just as the Bears' defense has slumped.

So it probably shouldn't come as shocker that I'm picking the Saints to continue their dream season and advance to Super Bowl XLI. That being said, they need to keep the ball away from Chicago return man extraordinaire Devin Hester at all costs, and if it's a close game in the final minutes, will need to hope that they get the ball last - if the Bears do, their kicker Robbie Gould has already shown that he can kick the clutch field goal to win the game.

Tomorrow we'll see if the people's choice Super Bowl of Colts-Saints comes to fruition.

NFL MVP: Brees or LT?

The debate has been simmering for a couple weeks now, since Week 14 when LaDainian Tomlinson set the single-season touchdown record and Drew Brees orchestrated a thorough and ruthless demolition of the Dallas Cowboys in front of a national audience. The debate is fierce, and whichever of the two former Charger teammates wins (and this is only a two-horse race) will be well-deserving of NFL MVP. But who is more deserving?

The case for Tomlinson:
- He has always been an elite runner, but he has taken his game to an other-worldly level this year. After averaging 3.9 and 4.3 yds/carry in the last two seasons respectively, Tomlinson has bumped the figure up to a hefty 5.3 yds/carry this season. And of course the touchdowns - there was a reason he was in every fantasy draft's top 3 this year, but even the most knowing experts wouldn't have expected 31 touchdowns, a league record by 3, with a game still to play.

- Tomlinson has gotten better as the year has gone along. After starting the season well, he became downright dominant in November, when the Chargers took control of the AFC West after the struggles of the Broncos. His yards per carry average and touchdown tally spiked in that month, at 6.2 yds/carry and 12 TDs respectively.

- His imposing presence has helped to ease the burden on first-time starter at QB, Philip Rivers, who blossomed into a Pro Bowl selection. The loss of Brees to free agency didn't hurt as much as it might have because there remained a consistent source of offense in Tomlinson.

- LT will be productive anytime and anywhere. He is a model of high-level consistency, the likes of which the NFL has rarely seen. He can get his yards anywhere, behind the left side, right side, or middle of the offensive line, making it difficult for defenses to overplay to any one area. (Not to mention his superior receiving skills for which you have to account.) He gets his touchdowns in equal doses at home and on the road, with a remarkable 14 rushing TDs apiece. And most importantly, you know he's going to get the ball in the red zone and defenses still can't stop him. That is domination.

The case for Brees:
- The leadership qualities he brings to a team that was perhaps in more need of them than any other franchise after last season's Katrina-driven nightmare. Fellow players and coaches are unanimous in saying that he brought an identity and a confidence that were sorely lacking before he arrived. The Saints would follow him anywhere, and that can't be underestimated in the team's rise this season.

- He played big in crucial games. In three wins that looking back, were integral to the Saints getting to this point, against Atlanta (the first Superdome game since Katrina), and Philadelphia and Dallas (wins that gave them the tiebreak advantage they parlayed into a first-round playoff bye) he has a combined 850 yds, 8 TDs, and 71% completion percentage.

- In a league in which a steady hand at quarterback has been hard to come by, Brees has been the rare exception - a free agent acquisition who has not only met, but exceeded expectations. Compared against a lot of uneven play at the quarterback position this year, his play has stood out even more than it would have already.

Who gets the vote?
Tomlinson is commonly referred to as the best player in the game today, but that's selling him short. This season he's also the most valuable. He is the surest thing there is the NFL, and his play has made a good Chargers team great in the regular season - a step up that is arguably harder to achieve that going from bad to good, as the Saints have done.

Brees has been terrific this year, but you can argue that coach Sean Payton has actually been the team's most valuable addition. When you factor in the addition of super-rookies Reggie Bush and Marques Colston, a healthy Deuce McAllister, and a true slate of home games, the Saints improved in a lot of areas from last season to this. The Chargers' main personnel upgrade has been the Pro Bowl-caliber play of OT Marcus McNeill, which is not to be diminished, but the franchise hasn't had the overall upheaval that the Saints have experienced. Tomlinson is the main difference in turning the Chargers into the Super Bowl favorite, and for that he deserves MVP.

The Charmed Life of the San Diego Chargers

Maybe it's just good karma going their way after the Ryan Leaf draft pick in 1998 went so horribly wrong and shackled them for several years. More likely, it's shrewd and forward-thinking decision-makers. Whatever it is, the San Diego Chargers are at 9-2 after today's win against the Raiders, and hardly has there been a week when it has been more evident the genius of their general manager A.J. Smith and his predecssor, the late John Butler, in putting this formidable team together.

The story starts in 2001, when Smith, then the assistant to Butler, and the Chargers had the top pick in the draft in hand. They seemed to be poised to take Michael Vick, the once-in-a-lifetime, make you do a double-take quarterback out of Virginia Tech. He was supposed to be the quarterback who would usher in a new era of NFL offense, changing the way the game was played. He was a slam-dunk choice, kind of like Reggie Bush was supposed to be in the 2006 draft. Of course, the Chargers defied convential wisdom and passed on Vick, trading the pick to the Falcons, and gaining the opportunity to draft TCU RB LaDainian Tomlinson at #4 overall and Purdue QB Drew Brees with the first pick in the second round. While everyone agreed that they got a couple of good players, the Chargers were lambasted for passing on a chance that they would never have again. At the time, people labeled it an overly-cautious move by the Chargers, who were still smarting from the Leaf debacle just a few years earlier.

Turns out Butler and Smith knew what they were doing. Fast forward 5 years later, and Drew Brees gave the Chargers two Pro Bowl caliber seasons before moving on to New Orleans, where he now leads the NFL in passing yards and is on the short list of MVP candidates. And wouldn't you know it, the leading MVP candidate in the league this year is that other 2001 Chargers draft pick, LaDainian Tomlinson. LT is on pace to break the single-season touchdown record this year, and with a couple more good years, can legitimately be considered among the greatest running backs in NFL history.

Vick on the other hand, who had success earlier in his career, leading the Falcons to the NFC Championship Game two years ago, has fallen on tough times. His raw athletic talent is still very much there and something to behold. However, he constantly faces questions about his quarterbacking ability in the pocket, and seems to be playing in an offensive system ill-suited to his talents. Today, his Falcons were beaten handily by Brees' Saints, a game that was capped off by Vick giving some Atlanta fans the finger as he stomped into the locker room.

Part 2 of the assemblage of the Chargers happened in 2004, when again, the Chargers had the top pick in the draft. When Eli Manning made it clear that he would not suit up for San Diego, the Chargers were able to swap Manning to the Giants for NC State QB Philip Rivers, in addition to the 2005 draft pick that would materialize as DE Shawne Merriman. Who's laughing now? Rivers, who has had to endure questions about his ability as an NFL QB because of his awkward throwing motion, has thrived in his first year as starter, while Manning is looking shakier by the week as the Giants continued their recent slide with a shocking 24-21 come-from-behind loss to the Titans, a loss that was due in no small part to Manning's critical interception late in the game with the score tied. Meanwhile, Merriman is in the midst of a four-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy, but before he was busted, he was looking like a prime candidate for league Defensive Player of the Year.

And wouldn't it be ironic and quite a jab to the Manning family if San Diego was able to overtake Indianapolis and their QB, Peyton Manning, and reach the Super Bowl this year? Who would have thought that the team that drafted Ryan Leaf might reach a Super Bowl before a Peyton Manning-led team did? Very interesting indeed....